To create a meaningful vision of the future, a framework for understanding how technology, industry and business interact and evolve together in the future is required. Models provide us with a process for analyzing the many complex factors that shape this industry and the progress of related technologies.

We are developing a range of modeling tools at MIT, including physical models, device models, network models, technical cost models, economic models, system dynamics models, and cognitive models. All of these models are valuable to the roadmapping process.

• Physical models serve to delineate that which is possible. We have also used physical models to project the impact of technologies from other disciplines – for example microprocessors – that are more easily predicted (by virtue of existing roadmaps with broad consensus) to optical transceivers.
  
• Technical cost models provide an essential tool for attaching dollar costs to technical design decisions; they become the first link between physical processes and performance to the overall goal of corporate profitability.
  
• Economic models help translate the concepts of cost into price. These models consider markets and their interaction with technology.
  
• System dynamics models complement economic models by considering the influence of policy decisions and technology choice on evolving markets.

View the listing of the May 2004 CLEO papers presented in San Francisco by CIPS faculty